Perspectives, latest news

European Olive Oil Market Trends – What to Expect in 2025: The European olive oil industry is set for a pivotal year in 2025, shaped by a rebound in production, evolving price dynamics, and changing consumer preferences. For food sourcing professionals, staying ahead of these trends is essential for informed procurement and strategic planning.

Production Recovery and Supply Outlook: Following successive years of drought-related declines, olive oil production in Europe is expected to recover significantly. According to the European Commission, EU production for the 2024/2025 season is projected to rise by 31%, reaching 2 million metric tons—9% above the five-year average. Spain, the region’s top producer, is forecasted to achieve a 48% increase in output, reaching 1.26 million tons, thanks to favorable spring rainfall. This recovery is expected to ease previous supply constraints and stabilize the market. Greece and Portugal are also contributing to the rebound, though Italy may face a less favorable harvest. Weather conditions remain a critical variable. While improved conditions in 2025 are encouraging, the risk of extreme weather—such as sudden frosts, heatwaves, or droughts—continues to threaten production. Therefore, buyers must closely monitor both climate trends and geopolitical factors that could disrupt the supply chain. Technological innovation is also playing a growing role in safeguarding yields. European producers are increasingly adopting advanced irrigation systems, precision agriculture, and drought-resistant olive tree varieties—efforts aimed at enhancing resilience and long-term sustainability.

[Olive Oil prices in 2025 – the reasons why the olive oil prices dropped, https://critida.com/olive-oil-prices-in-2025-the-reasons-why-the-olive-oil-prices-dropped/]

Price Shifts and Market Stabilization: Improved harvests are poised to influence olive oil pricing. After record-high prices caused by shortages, a downward trend is expected. Deoleo, the world’s leading olive oil producer, anticipates prices could drop to around €5 per liter by early 2025, assuming favorable weather continues. This price correction is likely to spark renewed interest among consumers, many of whom had turned to alternative oils due to high costs. The European Commission estimates a 7% rise in olive oil consumption across the EU in 2024/2025, following a 22% decline over the past two years. Still, a sharp price drop may be tempered by broader inflation, increased production costs, and higher transport expenses. Retailers and distributors may also adjust pricing based on consumer trends and inventory strategies. Additionally, international competition is a factor: countries like Turkey and Tunisia are expanding production, offering more competitive pricing. If EU prices remain elevated, imports from these regions could rise, exerting further pressure on European producers.

[Olive Oil prices in 2025 – the reasons why the olive oil prices dropped, https://critida.com/olive-oil-prices-in-2025-the-reasons-why-the-olive-oil-prices-dropped/]

Consumer Preferences and Evolving Demand: As prices begin to normalize, consumer behavior is expected to shift accordingly. During the recent price spikes, many households switched to cheaper alternatives like sunflower oil. With greater price stability, a gradual return to olive oil—particularly extra virgin—is anticipated. There is also growing demand for premium and sustainably produced olive oils, especially among health-conscious consumers in Western Europe. Quality, organic certification, and ethical sourcing are becoming key purchasing drivers. Private-label olive oils are gaining popularity as supermarkets invest in their own branded offerings, combining affordability with quality. This trend not only benefits consumers but also intensifies competition with established brands. Meanwhile, the rise of digital retail is reshaping purchasing habits. E-commerce and direct-to-consumer models are gaining traction, allowing smaller producers to reach wider audiences. Subscription services and specialized online shops for premium EVOO are also on the rise, underlining the importance of digital branding and storytelling.

[Olive Oil prices in 2025 – the reasons why the olive oil prices dropped, https://critida.com/olive-oil-prices-in-2025-the-reasons-why-the-olive-oil-prices-dropped/]

Trade Outlook and Export Potential: The EU’s olive oil exports are projected to grow by 10%, driven by increased output and competitive pricing. At the same time, imports are expected to decline by 7%. However, strong harvests in non-EU countries like Tunisia and Turkey could increase global competition, potentially influencing EU pricing and trade strategies. Demand from markets outside Europe—particularly North America and Asia—is on the rise. In the U.S., Mediterranean diets are becoming more popular, fueling olive oil consumption. This presents new export opportunities, especially for premium, traceable EVOO products. Certifications like PDO (Protected Designation of Origin) and PGI (Protected Geographical Indication) remain vital for market differentiation and consumer trust. To stay competitive globally, European producers must continue investing in traceability and transparent supply chains. Geopolitical factors will also shape trade flows. Exporters should closely monitor developments in trade agreements, tariffs, and regulatory changes, particularly in the U.S. and UK, as these may impact pricing and logistics strategies. In conclusion, the European olive oil market in 2025 is on track for a period of recovery and realignment. A strong production rebound—especially from Spain—is expected to stabilize supply and encourage a return to traditional consumption levels. However, the sector still faces considerable challenges, including climate unpredictability, rising operational costs, and global market competition. Success will depend on the industry’s ability to adapt, innovate, and stay ahead of shifting consumer and trade dynamics.

[Olive Oil prices in 2025 – the reasons why the olive oil prices dropped, https://critida.com/olive-oil-prices-in-2025-the-reasons-why-the-olive-oil-prices-dropped/]

Olive oil, a staple of the Mediterranean diet, encounters substantial commercial obstacles in some countries (i.e. Spain and other olive oil-producing nations). Historically, these obstacles have been examined from a consumer demand standpoint, focusing on aspects such as quality enhancement, pricing issues, and consumer awareness deficiencies. This study shifts the focus to the supply-side perspective, providing novel insights into the factors affecting the marketing and sale of olive oil. The implications of the study findings suggest that companies must restructure to become more professional and market-oriented to navigate and surmount the traditional commercial barriers in the olive oil industry. Overall, this research enhances our understanding of the supply-side dynamics influencing the marketing and sale of olive oil in the Spanish context and beyond. Aspects such as product quality, harvesting time, price, packaging, and health aspects are considered important for marketing and sales, although they are not perceived as key factors, as they are seen as minimum requirements expected by consumers. However, to stand out in a competitive market, companies need to focus on strategic differentiators such as professionalization, internationalization, and digitalization. These elements have a significant impact on business management and should be the focus of marketing and communication strategies. Furthermore, although technical aspects such as sustainability and technification received lower priority, integrating them in a way that supports key areas of management can strengthen long-term competitiveness. In short, companies need to go beyond basic requirements and focus on strategic factors that add value and enable effective differentiation in the market.

[López-Castro, J. A., & Parrilla-González, J. A. (2024). Marketing Strategies for Olive Oil: A Supply-Side Perspective from Spain. Businesses, 4(4), 553-565, https://doi.org/10.3390/businesses4040033]

[Mili, S., & Bouhaddane, M. (2021). Forecasting Global Developments and Challenges in Olive Oil Supply and Demand: A Delphi Survey from Spain. Agriculture, 11(3), 191. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11030191]

Greece is among the three largest producers in the European Union (EU), along with Spain and Italy, and has the largest annual per capita consumptions in the world. Approximately one-third of the rural Greek population has previously been reported to be occupied with olive cultivation, while many households settled in large urban areas possess and cultivate olive groves. Globally, the olive oil market has evolved from a traditional bulk to a more customized market where olive oil is perceived as a food specialty, like other high-quality products, and provides a means to understand consumer behavior. There is no main attribute regarding consumer preference of olive oil, some researchers reported that the most valued attributes of olive oil among Greek consumers were geographical origin and organic production, with price being among the least valued.

A recent survey reported that Italian consumers had similarly a positive preference for geographical origin attribute, but, on the other hand, the organic attribute was not highly valued. Other attributes, such as oil color and low-acidity, as well as attributes such as market leader brand, sustainability, and supply chain ethics, have also been reported as important olive oil preference attributes. In Greece, however, previous studies have shown that a large percentage of Greek households continue to consume unbranded bulk olive oil obtained from friends, family, or own production compared to branded products. In countries such as Portugal, where olive oil consumers have been shown to exhibit a high degree of ethnocentric behavior, such a tendency has not been reported to result or be associated with a preference of unbranded olive oil obtained in bulk. This large difference in Greek consumers compared to other countries, which prefer branded small packages, is an important area of investigation since the quality of unbranded oil and factors previously stated as affecting its attributes cannot always be tested.

[Marakis G, Gaitis F, Mila S, Papadimitriou D, Tsigarida E, Mousia Z, Karpouza A, Magriplis E, Zampelas A. Attitudes towards Olive Oil Usage, Domestic Storage, and Knowledge of Quality: A Consumers’ Survey in Greece. Nutrients, (2021) Oct 21; 13(11): 3709, doi: 10.3390/nu13113709. PMID: 34835965; PMCID: PMC8621747]

[https://critida.com/olive-oil-international-production-consumption-of-olive-oil/]

Consumption of unbranded olive oil obtained in bulk has previously been reported to be very high in Greece, underlining the need to investigate knowledge regarding its health attributes and storage practices, two areas that can affect oil quality. This study aimed to investigate Greek consumers’ use and choice of olive oil, their knowledge about its quality, as well as domestic storage practices of olive oil. A cross-sectional survey (Marakis et al. 2021) was conducted in a representative sample of 857 Greek households that consume olive oil, using a previously validated questionnaire. Most participating households use olive oil produced by themselves or by their extended family or friends (60.3%), and only 27.4% purchase branded olive oil, while 57% reported using extra virgin olive oil (EVOO). Only 38.4% of the respondents reported optimal domestic storage practices to maintain olive oil quality, with a significant greater percentage of non-producers group compared to olive oil producers. In all areas of Greece, the higher the knowledge of olive oil quality, the higher the probability of consumers selecting EVOO and perceiving olive oil price as low. The survey highlights the need to heighten consumers’ knowledge of olive oil attributes and correct storage practices and awareness about branded EVOO and its superior quality.

The Marakis et al. (2021) survey highlights areas that need to be attained to regarding consumers’ knowledge, storage, and behavior towards olive oil. Nevertheless, there are some knowledge gaps and malpractices that have been addressed and need to be improved. The use of unbranded in bulk olive oil in Greek households remains high and is significantly associated with olive oil production, but its quality and safety is not ascertained. Therefore, olive oil education programs are necessary since only approximately half of the households with higher educational level and better profession reported using EVOO, and better knowledge was associated with higher EVOO consumption. Future investigations could encompass actual olive oil consumption as well as quality assessment of produced olive oil. Lastly, it may be commendable to include more households to have a representative sample of olive oil attitudes from other ethnicities as well. Educational efforts to promote better understanding of the superiority of extra virgin olive oil are warranted, such as learning to appreciate the bitter and pungent taste of the EVOO.